Adaptation Forestry Practices for Climate Change Mitigation: a Field Study

Dr. Julie Etterson presents the results of the first climate-informed restoration project in the US Great Lakes forests region. This area will likely experience some of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the continental U.S.A. Simulation modeling indicates that temperate tree species that currently occur in the region at low abundance levels (e.g., Quercus rubra, Q. macrocarpa and Pinus strobus) will be well-adapted to future climate conditions, but also demonstrates that the natural colonization rates of these species cannot keep pace with the rapidly changing climate leaving many suitable niches unrealized. Dr. Julie Etterson and her team tested the efficacy of within-range planting of climate adapted species sampled from more than one seed transfer zone. In 2013 and 2014 they planted a total of 4,400 seedlings in sixteen sites using both local and seed sources from further south or west where climate conditions are warmer and drier. For three years (2014-2016), they assessed survival, growth, and spring and fall phenology. They compared the fit of the data using four models that featured contrasting factors: 1) seed transfer zones, 2) forest types, 3) geographical position, and 4) climate variables.